The Secretary-General of the Commonwealth Secretariat
Ladies and Gentlemen
Uganda is most privileged to welcome the Commonwealth Youth Forum as one of the functions preceding the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting (CHOGM) which will start on the 23rd of November 2007.
The Commonwealth is a global Organization of countries spread over the continents of Africa, Asia, Australiasia, the Pacific, North America and Europe. The combined population of the Commonwealth is about 2 billion people (1,921,974,000), one-third of the total human population (which is about 6 billion people).
The distinctive feature of the Commonwealth is that all these countries use English as the sole or one of their official languages. This makes communication easy. This is a factor that needs to be utilized for the good of the Commonwealth and the world. This is one reason I associate myself with the Commonwealth Partnership for Technical Management (CPTM). I found that such a multi-racial, multi-national, multi-cultural group could be a useful think-tank for the world in dealing with issues such as the environment, terrorism, trade, etc. The theme for the forth-coming CHOGM is, for instance, “transformation of the Commonwealth societies”. We are referring to transforming these societies from Third-world to First world ones as Mr. Lee Kuan Yew, the former Prime Minister of Singapore, said. As we speak today, some of the Commonwealth societies have been thus transformed; but others have not been transformed. What factors have brought this about? Why is it that some Commonwealth societies have transitioned while others have not? Some of these societies transitioned before the 2nd world war. Those are countries like Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Others have transitioned since the 2nd world war. These are countries like India, Singapore, Malaysia, South Africa, etc. The others are still in the process of transformation. These include Uganda, etc.
The forth-coming CHOGM will delve into the factors that have helped some societies to undergo that transformation and those that have inhibited others from doing so. I do not have the mandate to pre-empt the outcome of that discussion with my own personal views. However, I encourage you to make your own input which you should forward to the Commonwealth Secretariat.
However, I would like to use this opportunity to highlight the salient features of the social transformation that have taken place in some of the Commonwealth countries. In order to do so, I will compare two countries that you know very well – U.K. and Uganda.
Six hundred years ago, about 1400 AD, these countries were quite similar. In U.K. you had a feudal landed class that owned the land; this feudal class had peasants on that land as tenants; the latter paid rent to the former; then you had artisans that used the skills of the hand and some elementary tools to make weapons (lances, swords, etc.), ploughs, pottery, cobblers, etc. The feudal-lords, in addition to ownership of land, controlled political power. By 1789, the situation in some of the European countries in Europe such as France had evolved into a four-class society: the Aristocrats, the middle class, the peasants and the proletariat (the working class, mainly, in industries). Therefore, two new social classes had evolved since the time of the Renaissance – the middle class and the working class. This was because of the industries. Artisan production had been replaced by industrial production.
The metamorphosis in society also corresponded with the level of production. Factories had greater capacity to produce than artisans. The factories also employed more people than the artisans did. As we speak today, in U.K. especially, the peasant class has disappeared and so has the feudal class in terms of production relations. Socially, there is still an aristocratic class but in production relations’ terms they are operating on profit principles like other capitalists. The feudal relations of production were replaced by the money nexus. However, the dominant classes now are the middle class and the skilled working class.
This social metamorphosis has catapulted the production capacity of the U.K. The GDP (ppp) of U.K. today is US$ 1.9 trillion. While by 1811 Alfred Malthus was predicting catastrophe because of what he perceived as population explosion in U.K. when the population was only 12 million, U.K. now has a population of 60 million people that are 10 times wealthier than they were in 1811 (by per capita income). What was the medicine for U.K.? The medicine was industrialization, modernization and social transformation.
By contrast Uganda – the kingdoms that later constituted Uganda – by 1400 AD were quite advanced Late Iron Age societies with a feudal class, a peasantry class and an artisan class of people working iron (abahesi), ceramics (ababumbi, abanogoozi), leather (abahazi, abaremi), textiles (abakomagyi), carpentry (ababaizi), etc. There were also professionals such as bone-setters (ababungyi), surgeons (abagyengyi), medicine-men (abafumu), etc.
The difference between U.K. and Uganda, which could be taken as a micro-cosm for the rest of Africa, was that, on account, of some specific conditions which we shall talk about in CHOGM, the Late Iron Age economy in Uganda had not turned into the industrial-age by the time the Europeans came to Africa. Therefore, the two agents of change that helped Europe to transition – the middle class and the skilled working class – had not emerged. With colonialism new distortions set in: – one of them was the decline of the artisan class. The other one was the interference with the forward and backward linkages of the economy leading to the sole reliance on exporting raw-materials. The Ugandan economy before 1900 had all the important backward and forward linkages but they were on the basis of artisan technology, not yet industrial. Why had a significant middle class not emerged in Uganda since independence? There are reasons why it had not. However, as of now, a basis for a large middle class is being created by our policy of Education for All (EA). However, EA must be accompanied by other measures, such as employment creation. Otherwise, Uganda will become a Philippines and not a South Korea where our labour force will have to emigrate in order to get jobs outside. In my CHOGM speech, I will deal with some of these factors. How is it that some of the former colonies such as Singapore and Malaysia have transitioned? It was because the leaders in those countries applied the correct strategic macro-economic stimuli to the economies and societies there. We shall identify these strategic macro-economic stimuli as well as the tactical stimuli. However, we need your input.
As of today, however, suffice it to say, that the two different paths of development have produced very different products. Those countries that have applied correct strategic stimuli as well as tactical ones to their economies and societies have got more of their populations in industry and services than in agriculture as shown by the following figures:
TABLE SHOWING LABOUR FORCE BY SECTOR (OCCUPATION), POPULATIONS, INFANT MORTALITY RATE, GDP (PPP), INCOME/CAPITA (PPP) & LIFE EXPECTANCY OF SOME OF THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Country: Total
Popul.
(mill): Agric
(%): Indus
(%): Services
(%): GDP (PPP) $: Income/capita
(PPP) $: Infant-Mort. rate/
1000: Life Expectancy
(2007 est.):
Total
Popul. (yrs): Fem.
(yrs): Male
(yrs):
U.K. 60 1.4 18.2 80.4 (2006 est) 1.9 tri. 31,800 (2006 est) 5.01 78.7 81.3 76.23
USA 300 0.7 22.9 76.4 (2006 est) 13.6 tri. 43,800 (2006 est) 6.37 78 80.97 74.5
German 82 2.8 33.4 63.8 (1999 est) 2.6 tri 31,900 (2006 est) 4.08 78.95 82.11 75.96
Japan 127 4.6 27.8 67.7 (2004 est) 4.22 tri. 33,100 (2006 est) 2.80 82.02 85.56 78.67
Malaysia 24 13 36 51 (2005 est) 313.2 bn 12,800 (2006 est) 16.62 72.76 75.65 70.06
S. Korea 49 6.4 26.4 67.2 (2006 est) 1.2 tri. 24,500 (2006 est) 6.05 77.23 80.93 73.81
Thailand 65 44.9 19.7 35.4 (2003 est) 596.5 bn 9,200 (2006 est) 18.85 72.55 74.98 70.24
Singapore 5 - 24 76 (2006 est) 141.2 bn 31,400 (2006 est) 2.3 81.8 84.59 79.21
India 1.1 bn 60 12 28 (2005 est) 4.16 tri 3800 (2006 est) 34.61 68.59 71.17 66.28
S. Africa 44 30 25 45 (1999 est) 587.5 bn 13,300 (2006 est) 59.44 42.45 41.66 43.21
Source: different Internet websites
Moreover, more of their populations live in urban areas than those that live in the rural areas as shown by the following figures:
Table showing percentage of urban and rural populations of some developed countries
Country Urban % Rural % Total Population
United Kingdom 89.7 10.3 60 million
U.S.A 80.8 19.2 300 million
Japan 65.8 34.2 128 million
Malaysia 67.3 32.7 25 million
Singapore 100 0 5 million
Belgium 66 34 10 million
South Korea 80.8 11.2 49 million
Thailand 32.3 67.7 65 million
South Africa 59.3 39.7 44 million
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division World Urbanization Prospects: the 2005 Revision
On the other hand, the societies that have not applied the right strategic macro-economic stimuli as well as tactical ones to their economies and societies have a social structure where a very large number of people are still in agriculture while a much smaller number is in industry and services. The figures in the following table illustrate that:
TABLE SHOWING LABOUR FORCE BY SECTOR (OCCUPATION), POPULATIONS, INFANT MORTALITY RATE, GDP (PPP), INCOME/CAPITA (PPP) & LIFE EXPECTANCY OF SOME OF THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Country: Total
Popul.
(mill): Agric
(%): Indus
(%): Services
(%): GDP (PPP) $: Income/capita
(PPP) $: Infant-Mort. rate/
1000: Life Expectancy
(2007 est.):
Total
Popul. (yrs): Fem.
(yrs): Male
(yrs):
Uganda 30 m 73 4.2 22.5 (2006 est) 52.9 bn 1,.900 67.22 51.75 52.73 50.78
Nigeria 135 70 10 20 (1999 est) 191.4 bn 1,.500 (2006 est) 95.52 47.44 48.07 47.44
Kenya 36 75 25 – for both ind. & serv.
(2003 est) 41.5 bn 1,.200 (2006 est) 57.44 55.31 55.37 55.24
Tanzania 39 80 20 – for both ind. & serv.
(2002 est) 29.6 bn 800 (2006 est) 71.69 50.71 52.04 49.41
Egypt 80 27.5 20.6 51.9 (2002 est) 334.4 bn 4.,200 (2006 est) 29.50 71.57 74.22 64.04
Botswana 1.8 3 37.2 59.8 (1997 est) 17.93 bn 10,900 (2006 est) 43.97 50.58 49.58 51.55
Libya 6 18 31 51 (2004 est) 73.34 bn 12,300 (2006 est) 22.82 76.88 79.23 74.64
Ghana 22 60 15 25 (1999 est) 60 bn 2,700 (2006 est) 53.56 59.12 59.95 58.31
Source: different Internet websites
The percentages of the above countries’ populations on urbanization are shown in the following table:
Table showing percentage of urban and rural populations of some of the developing countries
Country Urban % Rural % Total Population
Uganda 12.6 87.4 30 million
Nigeria 48.2 51.8 135 million
Kenya 20.7 79.3 36 million
Tanzania 24.2 75.8 39 million
Egypt 42.8 57.2 80 million
Botswana 57.4 42.6 1.8 million
Libya 84.8 15.2 6 million
Ghana 47.8 52.2 22 million
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division World Urbanization Prospects: the 2005 Revision
Such a social structure has got negative implications for productivity levels, for employment creation, for the environment, etc. What, for instance, are the greatest threats to the environment in Uganda? It is this pre-industrial social structure in the form of primitive agriculture destroying more and more forests and lack of electrification causing the destruction of more bio-mass in the form of fire-wood.
Therefore, I request you to think over these issues and make your input to the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting.
In conclusion, therefore, I would like to welcome all of you to Uganda and it is my pleasure to declare the Commonwealth Youth Forum 2007 open.
14 November 2007 - Imperial Resort Beach Hotel (Entebbe)
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